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At the end of 2023, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predicted that artificial intelligence will be able to compete with a person in 5 years. And now Elon Musk, known for his “very accurate forecasts,” has shared his own estimate – the owner of Tesla and SpaceX expects the emergence of a full-fledged AGI, smarter than the smartest person, next year or by 2026 maximum.
About the development time frame of AGI
In a lengthy interview during a broadcast on X/Twitter Spaces, which was plagued by numerous technical problems, Elon Musk told the CEO of the Norwegian National Wealth Fund Nikolai Tangen that the development of AI rests on the availability of electricity, and this will be decisive in the next year or two. He also stated that the next version of the xAI Grok chatbot will be trained by May.
“If you consider AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest person, then in my opinion it will probably appear next year, within two years,” Musk said, responding to question about the time frame for AGI development.
The eccentric billionaire also complained that the lack of advanced chips was disrupting the training of the Grok 2 model and was currently the main limiting factor. According to Musk, it took about 20,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs to train the Grok 2 model, and at least 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips for Grok 3 and subsequent versions.
Earlier, Elon Musk, who is also the co-founder of OpenAI, along with other experts called for suspending the development of neurogenerative models more powerful than OpenAI GPT-4 for six months, so as not to inadvertently create Skynet. After some time, Elon Musk created his own AI startup xAI, ran into OpenAI and Microsoft several times, and then took and sued the developer company ChatGPT and its director Sam Altman for abandoning the original mission – to develop AI for the benefit of humanity , not for profit. OpenAI denies these allegations. You can also remember the story of how Elon Musk wanted to head OpenAI in 2018, but was refused, got offended and canceled the promised funding.
About electric cars and competition with BYD and others
Speaking of electric vehicles, Musk reiterated that Chinese automakers are “the most competitive in the world” and pose Tesla's “biggest competitive challenges.” He has previously warned that Chinese rivals would destroy global rivals without trade barriers. Interestingly, before he changed his mind about Chinese automakers, Elon Musk ridiculed BYD cars.
Musk also mentioned the union strike in Sweden against Tesla at the end of 2023 and addressed the organizers, saying: “I think the storm has passed on that front.” In response, Tangen said the $1.5 trillion Norwegian sovereign wealth fund, one of Tesla's largest shareholders, met with the company's CEO last month and received an update on the situation.
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Musk also addressed the Swedish union strike against Tesla, saying: «I think the storm has passed on that front».
Tangen said Norway's $1.5 trillion Sovereign Wealth Fund, one of Tesla's largest shareholders, met with the company's chief executive last month and received an update on the situation.
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