Forecasts from Avilon, Pragmatika and Autostat
According to the forecast of the deputy head of the analytics department of the agency «Avtostat» Victor Pushkarev, you shouldn’t expect stabilization of car prices or their reduction in 2024.
He is confident that prices will continue to rise as automakers try to cover all production and logistics costs, as well as make the maximum possible profit.
«For a rough assessment of price dynamics, you can use the dependence of the weighted average price of a car on the official annual inflation rate. For example, in 2022, inflation was 12%, and price increases – 29%, in 2023 these figures are projected at 7.5% and 21%, respectively. And if the Russian budget for 2024 shows a forecast for a minimum inflation of 4.5%, then the price increase could be no less than 10 – 12%– added Pushkarev.
As predicted by the director for the development of a network of dealer centers «Pragmatics» Alexander Shaprinsky, in 2024 the price of cars will rise by 5–10%. He noted that to stabilize prices, a stable ruble exchange rate, a stable and affordable lending rate and a reasonable disposal fee are needed.
«Prices for new cars in 2023 grew at different rates, premium segment models rose more in price, with an average increase of 29%. The mass segment grew by 22%. In 2024, the continuation of the «galloping» We do not foresee price increases. At the same time, there are no conditions for their reduction in the industry yet. Thus, based on prices for next year, we can predict a slight increase of 2 – 3% per quarter– says Deputy General Director for Sales of New Cars AG «Avilon» Renat Tyukteev.